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Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 504680
07-14-2019 08:40 AM

 




Post: #61
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
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MR2  Wrote: (07-12-2019 01:16 PM)
LoP Guest  Wrote: (07-12-2019 01:04 PM)
I know, lots of speculation, but it certainly feels like we are, or have been shifting national economics into highly politicised topics.. The choice of a non economist to lead the ECB for example.. there seems to have been a huge shift to lawyers and diplomats for these roles... which is itself interesting.. what is it they are expecting that means a diplomat or lawyer is better placed to manage economic issues if not major trade wars resulting from the current geopolitical situation.
There has been lots of Gold being placed in strategic countries from what I've been reading, China and Russia are constructing a new silk road to open up the European markets and a steady move away from the U.S. dollar and bonds. The bond markets are being inverted in many markets and the level of public, banking and personal debt is way into uncharted territory for most countries now. Fed rates are unsustainable and now 3 large banks are warning of large scale bond sell offs.

It doesn't look too good...but hey I'm just a random retard on the net...so who knows. If I had to guess a major reset might be on the cards sometime soon.

1dunno1

I think the move away from the US has a few different streams, many look at the world as though it still fits into the nominal notion of West vs Russia or China and that in my mind was shattered in 2008/9.. what we see when we look beyond that nominal notion is many new alliances (of self interest/self protection) that sit outside that notional framework...

I tend to feel that when viewing history what you end up with is a flow of change, with military alliances linking into political alliances that create economic alliances, these I see as the more rounded/sustainable alliances. and the world is devolving into lots of these mini alliances that sit outside existing notional frameworks.

Notionally I would say that the UK is far more exposed to issues in China than Russia, as the relationship is deeper and more rounded.. the linking of the markets, the depth at which British banks play in internationalising the RMB, the gold trade between the 2 countries all leave the UK highly exposed to issues in China. So that places the UK in a difficult position vis-a-vis the brewing economic conflict between the US and China which started back in 2010.

In Libya, Syria and now Iran we see some powers that have been (up to the crash of 2008/9) staunch supporters of the US coming under fire from both Repub and Dem Presidents for playing by, what can only be described as their own playsheet, and to their own goals which highlight the divergence between those powers and US goals.

On the other side of that issue, Iran has the capacity to break the EUs reliance on Russian O&G via the Pars Pipeline.. which places them (Iran) as also stuck in the middle. Ukraine would have been the perfect location for an EU gas hub and reverse flow the pipeline there would give the EU full control over it's gas network... (problem is that part is Russian, and the second part is that would impact potential US exports)

So we have what seems like some pretty big fracture lines and taking down a major bank in a location that many feel the next crash will emanate from kinda leaves me feeling we are a hairs breath away from a next crash/conflict and the markets are reflecting some of these issues...

But like you, these are all just guesses and history shows things are never that clear or that easy to predict since this stuff never works out how people expect...

The most recent example I can think of is Soros taking down the BoE in the 1990s, some may castigate him and those who followed his lead for that, but what he did was actually a service to the UK as it allowed the UK space to bounce back, which it couldn't do while tied to the ERM, there is a chance that if the UK maintained that link with the ERM it would have joined the Euro as a founding member..

The flip side of that one is Brexit which can be traced back to that point... Black Wednesday turned THE ( in capitals as that is what they where) Pro Europe Conservatives into an not pro Europe party, as it was European leaders comments about the health of the UK that triggered Soros to make his moves..

The reason I bring that up is that this feels like there is also a political element here in taking down or pressuring this bank for a specific outcome (a political one) the risk in these things is that it can create the opposite effect to the one they want to achieve.. and if this triggers a domino effect (crash) it might actually reinforce that persons position as opposed to weakening it..

So many lines this could all fracture along.... am just surprised this bus keeps rolling along as it does...
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MR2
Registered User
User ID: 507166
07-14-2019 09:28 AM

Posts: 2,001




Post: #62
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
LoP Guest  Wrote: (07-14-2019 08:40 AM)
MR2  Wrote: (07-12-2019 01:16 PM)
There has been lots of Gold being placed in strategic countries from what I've been reading, China and Russia are constructing a new silk road to open up the European markets and a steady move away from the U.S. dollar and bonds. The bond markets are being inverted in many markets and the level of public, banking and personal debt is way into uncharted territory for most countries now. Fed rates are unsustainable and now 3 large banks are warning of large scale bond sell offs.

It doesn't look too good...but hey I'm just a random retard on the net...so who knows. If I had to guess a major reset might be on the cards sometime soon.

1dunno1

I think the move away from the US has a few different streams, many look at the world as though it still fits into the nominal notion of West vs Russia or China and that in my mind was shattered in 2008/9.. what we see when we look beyond that nominal notion is many new alliances (of self interest/self protection) that sit outside that notional framework...

I tend to feel that when viewing history what you end up with is a flow of change, with military alliances linking into political alliances that create economic alliances, these I see as the more rounded/sustainable alliances. and the world is devolving into lots of these mini alliances that sit outside existing notional frameworks.

Notionally I would say that the UK is far more exposed to issues in China than Russia, as the relationship is deeper and more rounded.. the linking of the markets, the depth at which British banks play in internationalising the RMB, the gold trade between the 2 countries all leave the UK highly exposed to issues in China. So that places the UK in a difficult position vis-a-vis the brewing economic conflict between the US and China which started back in 2010.

In Libya, Syria and now Iran we see some powers that have been (up to the crash of 2008/9) staunch supporters of the US coming under fire from both Repub and Dem Presidents for playing by, what can only be described as their own playsheet, and to their own goals which highlight the divergence between those powers and US goals.

On the other side of that issue, Iran has the capacity to break the EUs reliance on Russian O&G via the Pars Pipeline.. which places them (Iran) as also stuck in the middle. Ukraine would have been the perfect location for an EU gas hub and reverse flow the pipeline there would give the EU full control over it's gas network... (problem is that part is Russian, and the second part is that would impact potential US exports)

So we have what seems like some pretty big fracture lines and taking down a major bank in a location that many feel the next crash will emanate from kinda leaves me feeling we are a hairs breath away from a next crash/conflict and the markets are reflecting some of these issues...

But like you, these are all just guesses and history shows things are never that clear or that easy to predict since this stuff never works out how people expect...

The most recent example I can think of is Soros taking down the BoE in the 1990s, some may castigate him and those who followed his lead for that, but what he did was actually a service to the UK as it allowed the UK space to bounce back, which it couldn't do while tied to the ERM, there is a chance that if the UK maintained that link with the ERM it would have joined the Euro as a founding member..

The flip side of that one is Brexit which can be traced back to that point... Black Wednesday turned THE ( in capitals as that is what they where) Pro Europe Conservatives into an not pro Europe party, as it was European leaders comments about the health of the UK that triggered Soros to make his moves..

The reason I bring that up is that this feels like there is also a political element here in taking down or pressuring this bank for a specific outcome (a political one) the risk in these things is that it can create the opposite effect to the one they want to achieve.. and if this triggers a domino effect (crash) it might actually reinforce that persons position as opposed to weakening it..

So many lines this could all fracture along.... am just surprised this bus keeps rolling along as it does...

I don't think people, in general, realise how fragile things are. The system is so finely tuned that any small failure can cascade down the line to become a complete system collapse. From where I sit there seems to be little to no safeguards in place to avert this from happening.

In Australia, where I am, we see a property bubble larger than that which brought down Ireland and the new government seems to be doubling down even though a decline in housing prices is not only happening but has all the signs of degrading much further. Unfortunately housing here has been the main stay of our population's wealth growth for decades. With a rising rate of baby boomer retirement all wanting to downsize for retirement and capitalise on their investments more and more large expensive houses are flooding the market. With no real wage growth and rising costs of living and the introduction of sensible bank lending regulations (which they have just loosened) the youth can not afford the cost of entering the property market. The cost to retiree's could be a 30-50% loss placing that cost fairly on the next generation.

If we add to that the list of other countries, like Australia, with systemic problems, then even a minor hiccup in the financial system could set off a cascading collapse of like we have never seen before. There are too many countries living right on the edge..and if one falls the others will follow in quick succession.

The fragility not only applies to the financial system.. it also applies to ecology, food supply, resources and population.

Here in Australia we shut down our last oil refinery years ago.. If they just stop shipping refined fuel and diesel we run out in under a month. If most big cities stop shipping food supply to supermarkets then they have but days.

As I said, I don't think the majority of the population are aware of how fine tuned our system is. Deutsche Bank is the 6th largest bank in the world with 41 trillion in derivatives...if they catch as much as a cold or have the sniffles the world will know about it...problem is they might just have ammonia....or worse.


Good post BTW..intelligent and insightful ...thanks.

(This post was last modified: 07-14-2019 09:30 AM by MR2.) Quote this message in a reply
LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 504680
07-14-2019 09:58 AM

 




Post: #63
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
MR2  Wrote: (07-14-2019 09:28 AM)
LoP Guest  Wrote: (07-14-2019 08:40 AM)
I think the move away from the US has a few different streams, many look at the world as though it still fits into the nominal notion of West vs Russia or China and that in my mind was shattered in 2008/9.. what we see when we look beyond that nominal notion is many new alliances (of self interest/self protection) that sit outside that notional framework...

I tend to feel that when viewing history what you end up with is a flow of change, with military alliances linking into political alliances that create economic alliances, these I see as the more rounded/sustainable alliances. and the world is devolving into lots of these mini alliances that sit outside existing notional frameworks.

Notionally I would say that the UK is far more exposed to issues in China than Russia, as the relationship is deeper and more rounded.. the linking of the markets, the depth at which British banks play in internationalising the RMB, the gold trade between the 2 countries all leave the UK highly exposed to issues in China. So that places the UK in a difficult position vis-a-vis the brewing economic conflict between the US and China which started back in 2010.

In Libya, Syria and now Iran we see some powers that have been (up to the crash of 2008/9) staunch supporters of the US coming under fire from both Repub and Dem Presidents for playing by, what can only be described as their own playsheet, and to their own goals which highlight the divergence between those powers and US goals.

On the other side of that issue, Iran has the capacity to break the EUs reliance on Russian O&G via the Pars Pipeline.. which places them (Iran) as also stuck in the middle. Ukraine would have been the perfect location for an EU gas hub and reverse flow the pipeline there would give the EU full control over it's gas network... (problem is that part is Russian, and the second part is that would impact potential US exports)

So we have what seems like some pretty big fracture lines and taking down a major bank in a location that many feel the next crash will emanate from kinda leaves me feeling we are a hairs breath away from a next crash/conflict and the markets are reflecting some of these issues...

But like you, these are all just guesses and history shows things are never that clear or that easy to predict since this stuff never works out how people expect...

The most recent example I can think of is Soros taking down the BoE in the 1990s, some may castigate him and those who followed his lead for that, but what he did was actually a service to the UK as it allowed the UK space to bounce back, which it couldn't do while tied to the ERM, there is a chance that if the UK maintained that link with the ERM it would have joined the Euro as a founding member..

The flip side of that one is Brexit which can be traced back to that point... Black Wednesday turned THE ( in capitals as that is what they where) Pro Europe Conservatives into an not pro Europe party, as it was European leaders comments about the health of the UK that triggered Soros to make his moves..

The reason I bring that up is that this feels like there is also a political element here in taking down or pressuring this bank for a specific outcome (a political one) the risk in these things is that it can create the opposite effect to the one they want to achieve.. and if this triggers a domino effect (crash) it might actually reinforce that persons position as opposed to weakening it..

So many lines this could all fracture along.... am just surprised this bus keeps rolling along as it does...

I don't think people, in general, realise how fragile things are. The system is so finely tuned that any small failure can cascade down the line to become a complete system collapse. From where I sit there seems to be little to no safeguards in place to avert this from happening.

In Australia, where I am, we see a property bubble larger than that which brought down Ireland and the new government seems to be doubling down even though a decline in housing prices is not only happening but has all the signs of degrading much further. Unfortunately housing here has been the main stay of our population's wealth growth for decades. With a rising rate of baby boomer retirement all wanting to downsize for retirement and capitalise on their investments more and more large expensive houses are flooding the market. With no real wage growth and rising costs of living and the introduction of sensible bank lending regulations (which they have just loosened) the youth can not afford the cost of entering the property market. The cost to retiree's could be a 30-50% loss placing that cost fairly on the next generation.

If we add to that the list of other countries, like Australia, with systemic problems, then even a minor hiccup in the financial system could set off a cascading collapse of like we have never seen before. There are too many countries living right on the edge..and if one falls the others will follow in quick succession.

The fragility not only applies to the financial system.. it also applies to ecology, food supply, resources and population.

Here in Australia we shut down our last oil refinery years ago.. If they just stop shipping refined fuel and diesel we run out in under a month. If most big cities stop shipping food supply to supermarkets then they have but days.

As I said, I don't think the majority of the population are aware of how fine tuned our system is. Deutsche Bank is the 6th largest bank in the world with 41 trillion in derivatives...if they catch as much as a cold or have the sniffles the world will know about it...problem is they might just have ammonia....or worse.


Good post BTW..intelligent and insightful ...thanks.

As is yours :) thanks for the response...

we have the opposite issue here in the UK, (a shortage of over 4m homes) but the end result is similar in terms of reflecting what is a broken system that has little to no wiggle room left play with.. as you say, it is not just economic wiggle room but we lack any wiggle room across the board from food to energy, one small accident/incident and it turn into a significant mess overnight..

Today in the UK we see another raft of leaks concerning the UK/US and specifically Trump... in my mind the leaks will only serve to harm the US/UK relationship further, and while there might be some who want to distance themselves from the US, at this time and with so many fractures such attacks are liable to backfire, and certainly not produce any desirable results.

The UK/Iran have shared O&G fields in the North Sea that have thus far got waivers from the Trump admin, this type of personal political row could have significant consequences and the US could follow through on it's threat to sanction the UK, and where would that place the Western alliance if the US places sanctions on the UK..

Feather in the threats from the US to France (tech tax) and Germany (exports) and the dire economic data coming from within the Eurozone it does not take a huge imagination to see a push on a bank such as this could in theory set off the dominoes rolling..

And I guess that is why I am concerned that nations seem to be replacing economists with lawyers... it's like there is so little wiggle room left to deal with the situation with existing economic tools that it is time to hand over the reigns to the lawyers... that just screams they are prepping for trouble and to use a phrase used by some, absolutely have no silver bullets left...

Honestly, I feel like I am at the point of just expecting the world to catch pneumonic plague at any moment... and we all lose if that happens.
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MR2
Registered User
User ID: 507166
07-14-2019 10:20 AM

Posts: 2,001




Post: #64
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
LoP Guest  Wrote: (07-14-2019 09:58 AM)
MR2  Wrote: (07-14-2019 09:28 AM)
I don't think people, in general, realise how fragile things are. The system is so finely tuned that any small failure can cascade down the line to become a complete system collapse. From where I sit there seems to be little to no safeguards in place to avert this from happening.

In Australia, where I am, we see a property bubble larger than that which brought down Ireland and the new government seems to be doubling down even though a decline in housing prices is not only happening but has all the signs of degrading much further. Unfortunately housing here has been the main stay of our population's wealth growth for decades. With a rising rate of baby boomer retirement all wanting to downsize for retirement and capitalise on their investments more and more large expensive houses are flooding the market. With no real wage growth and rising costs of living and the introduction of sensible bank lending regulations (which they have just loosened) the youth can not afford the cost of entering the property market. The cost to retiree's could be a 30-50% loss placing that cost fairly on the next generation.

If we add to that the list of other countries, like Australia, with systemic problems, then even a minor hiccup in the financial system could set off a cascading collapse of like we have never seen before. There are too many countries living right on the edge..and if one falls the others will follow in quick succession.

The fragility not only applies to the financial system.. it also applies to ecology, food supply, resources and population.

Here in Australia we shut down our last oil refinery years ago.. If they just stop shipping refined fuel and diesel we run out in under a month. If most big cities stop shipping food supply to supermarkets then they have but days.

As I said, I don't think the majority of the population are aware of how fine tuned our system is. Deutsche Bank is the 6th largest bank in the world with 41 trillion in derivatives...if they catch as much as a cold or have the sniffles the world will know about it...problem is they might just have ammonia....or worse.


Good post BTW..intelligent and insightful ...thanks.

As is yours :) thanks for the response...

we have the opposite issue here in the UK, (a shortage of over 4m homes) but the end result is similar in terms of reflecting what is a broken system that has little to no wiggle room left play with.. as you say, it is not just economic wiggle room but we lack any wiggle room across the board from food to energy, one small accident/incident and it turn into a significant mess overnight..

Today in the UK we see another raft of leaks concerning the UK/US and specifically Trump... in my mind the leaks will only serve to harm the US/UK relationship further, and while there might be some who want to distance themselves from the US, at this time and with so many fractures such attacks are liable to backfire, and certainly not produce any desirable results.

The UK/Iran have shared O&G fields in the North Sea that have thus far got waivers from the Trump admin, this type of personal political row could have significant consequences and the US could follow through on it's threat to sanction the UK, and where would that place the Western alliance if the US places sanctions on the UK..

Feather in the threats from the US to France (tech tax) and Germany (exports) and the dire economic data coming from within the Eurozone it does not take a huge imagination to see a push on a bank such as this could in theory set off the dominoes rolling..

And I guess that is why I am concerned that nations seem to be replacing economists with lawyers... it's like there is so little wiggle room left to deal with the situation with existing economic tools that it is time to hand over the reigns to the lawyers... that just screams they are prepping for trouble and to use a phrase used by some, absolutely have no silver bullets left...

Honestly, I feel like I am at the point of just expecting the world to catch pneumonic plague at any moment... and we all lose if that happens.

I fear Iran has been set up...Trump backed out of the Uranium/Nuclear deal and placed sanctions, not only on Iran, on anyone that dares deal with them. They can't even remove the processed uranium to another country, pushing them over the limit set in the agreement. Now they are saying' look they have too much processed uranium'. If Iran even looks like being independent setting up an alliance with Russia, China or rouge EU countries then the U.S. will have the political justification to start a war... and I think that is the intent.

It could be the distraction and/or the scape goat needed if things start to turtle up. Time will tell soon enough.

One thing I do know...the direction we are heading has an expiration date..it is unsustainable at so many levels.

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MR2
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07-14-2019 10:38 AM

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Post: #65
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!



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MR2
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07-14-2019 10:53 PM

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Post: #66
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!



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MR2
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07-14-2019 11:12 PM

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Post: #67
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!



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Natura Naturans
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07-15-2019 12:29 AM

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Post: #68
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
Australia is crashing. The Aussie dollar, the stock market, the housing market. ALL BECAUSE AUSTRALIA IS A SOCIALIST HELL HOLE. MR2 and the AC will get what they always wanted, social equality. EVERYONE will be poor like Venezuela.

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
(This post was last modified: 07-15-2019 12:29 AM by Natura Naturans.) Quote this message in a reply
He Man
Another day in paradise
User ID: 426524
07-15-2019 12:34 AM

Posts: 26,710




Post: #69
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
Thanks for posting on this, Trump's only bank that will lend to him is the most corrupt bank in the world now, it is the leading bank of Russian money laundering and corrupt practices, and ignoring normal financial regulations etc. etc.

5*

Hugs Cheer Jhikpghf

Making LOP Great again since 06-07-2013!

"Oh My God. This is terrible. This is the End of my Presidency.
I'm F'ed."
Trump: 2017

"Leadership: Whatever happens, you're responsible. If it doesn't happen, you're responsible."
Nov 8, 2013
Donald J. Trump

"I don't take responsibility at all." — March 13, 2020.
Donald J. Trump
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MR2
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User ID: 507166
07-15-2019 02:22 AM

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Post: #70
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (07-15-2019 12:29 AM)
Australia is crashing. The Aussie dollar, the stock market, the housing market. ALL BECAUSE AUSTRALIA IS A SOCIALIST HELL HOLE. MR2 and the AC will get what they always wanted, social equality. EVERYONE will be poor like Venezuela.

1) Australia is not socialist..we have some socialist policies the same as any other western country with the only major difference from the U.S. is that we pay 1/2 as much for a better health system.

2) We just voted in our right wing party into office (God knows why)

3) Places like Venezuela, Cuba, Iran are becoming shitholes more because of American interference and sanctions ..Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria were doing OK till America decided they couldn't.

4) Unfettered capitalism is now out of control, national debts are through the roof (A record 750 billion so far this year in the U.S. under Trump) Inequality around the world is at record levels along with personal debt, private debt and lower standard of living for most.



We are all in this world together...but as shown by NumbNuts ignorant rant, He doesn't care about others, about the things he says or about what his country does and the ramifications that ensue.


I guess we cant all be reasonable intelligent people 50% have to be below average.

Nice try though NumbNuts...but back to your Lego and try not to eat too many.

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MR2
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User ID: 507166
07-15-2019 02:30 AM

Posts: 2,001




Post: #71
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
He Man  Wrote: (07-15-2019 12:34 AM)
Thanks for posting on this, Trump's only bank that will lend to him is the most corrupt bank in the world now, it is the leading bank of Russian money laundering and corrupt practices, and ignoring normal financial regulations etc. etc.

5*

Hugs Cheer Jhikpghf

Thanks HeDude.. Fhug




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MR2
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User ID: 507166
07-15-2019 02:57 AM

Posts: 2,001




Post: #72
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!



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spɹɐʍoɔ snoɯʎuouɐ
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User ID: 350320
07-15-2019 04:26 AM

Posts: 48,394




Post: #73
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!




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MR2
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07-15-2019 04:45 AM

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Post: #74
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
Deutsche Bank’s decline is a sign masking the deeper problem of global marketplace illiquidity

Deutsche Bank's stock has declined by one third.

The valuation implies the market is applying an 80% discount to its assets.

But Deutsche Bank isn't a European banking problem. Rather, it's a sign that low market volatility, narrow credit spreads, and booming stock markets are masking a deeper global market liquidity problem, argues Macro Hive editor Bilal Hafeez.

Deutsche is not alone in suffering poor valuations to its book value, so there is a broader banking issue at play. Moreover, last December we saw markets plunge on poor liquidity conditions. And this year, we've heard of several asset managers such as Woodford and H20 struggle to offload illiquid assets. So, the illiquidity problem is plaguing more than just banks. What this means is that rather than viewing Deutsche Bank's woes as a potential European banking problem, it is instead a sign that low market volatility, narrow credit spreads, and booming stock markets are masking a deeper global market liquidity problem. And that does not bode well for when the next downturn or crisis eventually hits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche...?r=AU&IR=T

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MR2
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User ID: 507166
07-15-2019 04:50 AM

Posts: 2,001




Post: #75
RE: Deutsche Bank investigated, trouble ahead!
According to The New York Times, federal prosecutors have subpoenaed Deutsche Bank records related to loans for the family company of Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser. The German banking titan has reportedly lent hundreds of millions of dollars to the Kushner family’s real-estate empire, and the Times noted that there is no indication the federal attorney’s subpoena is at all related to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/nyt-feds-s...nk-records

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