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Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
CPL
Caution: Hipwaders required
User ID: 153181
06-18-2017 07:23 PM

Posts: 14,596



Post: #31
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Advertisement
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 06:20 AM)
[Image: energy_action_price_index.png]

Almost triple the rate for business electricity in just 5 years because of wind power!

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/17/d...le-energy/

From Australia:

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Awareness is slowly permeating through the media that renewables inevitably lead to higher electricity prices – and that the Australian energy grid is in deep trouble. But this awareness is too little, too late, to save what is left of what was once one of the cheapest electricity grids in the world.

Climate change zealots need to get real

Peta CredlinJune 18, 2017 12:00am

WELL, now we know.

The biggest deniers in the whole climate change debate are those who think we can have affordable power, lower emissions and a reliable network.

We can’t.

And after they almost sleepwalked their way to defeat at the last election, it would appear Coalition MPs have found their voices again on the issue that has defined Australian political debate over the past 15 years or more.

There’s no doubt that any policy that lowers Australia’s CO2 emissions will increase the cost of power and any move away from baseload capacity will make our network more unreliable.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezv...1497759389

The highest EROIE to date is still oil and gas. Without battery technology that's useful, there really isn't much point in pretending any of the other developments offered are anything but money pits that offer the same payback as a retail corner store. As business ventures they are garbage. There are plenty of energy choices, but they are all meaningless without the ability to store it in a timely manner or run longer than a couple of hours. Without developments to leverage the energy properly (transport, home, office, etc), the ride stops when the gas runs out. It will probably require that type of drastic event to refocus efforts into energy storage to keep things running.

[Image: 2lcoevr.png] BTC: 1JdRM74wtrBDZbu8n2aUPP3bLrCtEFFuM8

[Image: 2gy53sw.jpg] LTC: LgeE3yqbcuLkhqJGxPnqddM6Gvq9gtvuB3
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2017 07:26 PM by CPL.) Quote this message in a reply

LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 07:24 PM

 



Post: #32
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:13 PM)
SkeptiSchism  Wrote: (06-18-2017 08:45 AM)
Here is a good example of the effects of peak oil;

link to image: https://dj0s31cxqi9ot.cloudfront.net/wp-...png?x65756

https://srsroccoreport.com/petrodollar-s...-reserves/

That's the Saudi's foreign exchange reserves, which in the past were recycled back into US dollars and US financial assets like treasury bonds.

But as the profitability of oil drops, more production needs to be financed or subsidized, the Saudis are currently subsidizing their operation with selling their foreign exchange reserves.

Peak oil would cause the price to skyrocket. Instead the price is HALF what it was just a couple of year ago. Massive amounts of cheap oil are being produced in fracking in the US alone.

I tried to explain, perhaps I failed in my attempt. The legacy media wants you to think that peak oil is simply about supply, like there's not enough oil.

That's not true at all there is more oil, but it is harder to reach and has lower quality than the oil we used to build most of civilization for the past 200 years (since we began to use petroleum as a primary energy source).

The fact that the oil has lower energy returned over energy invested ratios, says that it's contribution to growth is over.

We've lived during a period of seemingly endless growth, all thanks to our energy dense sources of oil which are now extinct.

The key, as I said, is that a rise in the price of oil in the future's market does not translate into profits for the companies drilling because the cost to produce oil rises in direct relation to the increase in price in the future's market.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 07:27 PM

 



Post: #33
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
If oil companies cannot make a profit to drill oil, then the people who finance them will stop financing them and finance something else that does produce a profit.

Maybe you think that those people will just control and play the future's market? Answer, they already are and are still losing money.

This is what happens in complicated, complex systems when all prices are optimized to benefit the owners of capital.
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Natura Naturans
Registered User
User ID: 415819
06-18-2017 07:34 PM

Posts: 10,258



Post: #34
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
LoP Guest  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:24 PM)
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:13 PM)
Peak oil would cause the price to skyrocket. Instead the price is HALF what it was just a couple of year ago. Massive amounts of cheap oil are being produced in fracking in the US alone.

I tried to explain, perhaps I failed in my attempt. The legacy media wants you to think that peak oil is simply about supply, like there's not enough oil.

That's not true at all there is more oil, but it is harder to reach and has lower quality than the oil we used to build most of civilization for the past 200 years (since we began to use petroleum as a primary energy source).

The fact that the oil has lower energy returned over energy invested ratios, says that it's contribution to growth is over.

We've lived during a period of seemingly endless growth, all thanks to our energy dense sources of oil which are now extinct.

The key, as I said, is that a rise in the price of oil in the future's market does not translate into profits for the companies drilling because the cost to produce oil rises in direct relation to the increase in price in the future's market.

Certainly there are fields like in Venezuela where the oil extracted is getting thicker, less easy to refine. But that is more than compensated for by the fracking revolution. Oil outputs from fracking are phenomenal, sending the US into an oil exporting country. Trump's policies will only increase US oil production likely sending prices even lower.

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 421308
06-18-2017 08:37 PM

 



Post: #35
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:34 PM)
Certainly there are fields like in Venezuela where the oil extracted is getting thicker, less easy to refine. But that is more than compensated for by the fracking revolution. Oil outputs from fracking are phenomenal, sending the US into an oil exporting country. Trump's policies will only increase US oil production likely sending prices even lower.

Fracking destroys the subterranean water paths
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TGus
lop guest
User ID: 401245
06-18-2017 08:40 PM

 



Post: #36
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
We'll just have to learn to do without as much energy. You can do it!
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Natura Naturans
Registered User
User ID: 415819
06-18-2017 08:45 PM

Posts: 10,258



Post: #37
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
LoP Guest  Wrote: (06-18-2017 08:37 PM)
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:34 PM)
Certainly there are fields like in Venezuela where the oil extracted is getting thicker, less easy to refine. But that is more than compensated for by the fracking revolution. Oil outputs from fracking are phenomenal, sending the US into an oil exporting country. Trump's policies will only increase US oil production likely sending prices even lower.

Fracking destroys the subterranean water paths

Most fracking is done a mile deep far below well water. Only a few documented instances of groundwater contamination have been reported:

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/05062...-concludes

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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Alpha Omega
Friendship is Magic
User ID: 419000
06-18-2017 09:05 PM

Posts: 5,243



Post: #38
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:13 PM)
Peak oil would cause the price to skyrocket. Instead the price is HALF what it was just a couple of year ago. Massive amounts of cheap oil are being produced in fracking in the US alone.

It's hard to prophecy, but it does seem like peak US oil production may have already been reached and it's downhill from here:

[Image: revolt.jpg]

What we do know, is that the profitability of the oil industry is declining, which is not a good sign:

[Image: Top-Three-US-Oil-Companies-Net-Income.png]

It's possible we've seen the peak for US oil already, even though official projections for the future point ever upwards. Future projections must always look good, or investors run away! Hard to say how much truth there is in a chart like this:

[Image: 7789396-3x2-700x467.jpg]

Even if the US manages to keep up the "tight oil" production in the future, it could still be problematic to depend on this oil. This oil is in itself too light to refine, so it must first be blended with extra heavy oil from Canada's tar sands.

This is problematic, since the oil production from tar sand is very expensive (and extremely polluting as well).

All I'm saying is, you can't look at the viability of shale oil in isolation, since it is the combination of shale oil + tar sand oil that gets sent to the refinery.
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Damrod
Seeker of knowledge
User ID: 420517
06-18-2017 09:17 PM

Posts: 10,504



Post: #39
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
CPL  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:23 PM)
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 06:20 AM)
[Image: energy_action_price_index.png]

Almost triple the rate for business electricity in just 5 years because of wind power!

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/17/d...le-energy/

From Australia:

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Awareness is slowly permeating through the media that renewables inevitably lead to higher electricity prices – and that the Australian energy grid is in deep trouble. But this awareness is too little, too late, to save what is left of what was once one of the cheapest electricity grids in the world.

Climate change zealots need to get real

Peta CredlinJune 18, 2017 12:00am

WELL, now we know.

The biggest deniers in the whole climate change debate are those who think we can have affordable power, lower emissions and a reliable network.

We can’t.

And after they almost sleepwalked their way to defeat at the last election, it would appear Coalition MPs have found their voices again on the issue that has defined Australian political debate over the past 15 years or more.

There’s no doubt that any policy that lowers Australia’s CO2 emissions will increase the cost of power and any move away from baseload capacity will make our network more unreliable.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezv...1497759389

The highest EROIE to date is still oil and gas. Without battery technology that's useful, there really isn't much point in pretending any of the other developments offered are anything but money pits that offer the same payback as a retail corner store. As business ventures they are garbage. There are plenty of energy choices, but they are all meaningless without the ability to store it in a timely manner or run longer than a couple of hours. Without developments to leverage the energy properly (transport, home, office, etc), the ride stops when the gas runs out. It will probably require that type of drastic event to refocus efforts into energy storage to keep things running.


The wind and solar tards never talk about that one thing....

the batteries to store the energy so you can use it when it's dark or when the wind isn't blowing.

All batteries suck. They are expensive, their life expectancy is crap...

Wind and solar will always be a more or less "accessory energy source" or "novelty" until they come up with affordable, long life battery banks.

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." Thomas Jefferson

"Liberty means responsibility, which is why most men dread it." George Bernard Shaw

"Republics decline into democracies and democracies degenerate into despotism"...Aristotle
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2017 09:17 PM by Damrod.) Quote this message in a reply
LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 09:21 PM

 



Post: #40
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Alpha Omega  Wrote: (06-18-2017 09:05 PM)
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:13 PM)
Peak oil would cause the price to skyrocket. Instead the price is HALF what it was just a couple of year ago. Massive amounts of cheap oil are being produced in fracking in the US alone.

It's hard to prophecy, but it does seem like peak US oil production may have already been reached and it's downhill from here:

link to image: https://www.infillthinking.com/wp-conten...revolt.jpg

What we do know, is that the profitability of the oil industry is declining, which is not a good sign:

link to image: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-content/up...Income.png

It's possible we've seen the peak for US oil already, even though official projections for the future point ever upwards. Future projections must always look good, or investors run away! Hard to say how much truth there is in a chart like this:

link to image: http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/7789396...00x467.jpg

Even if the US manages to keep up the "tight oil" production in the future, it could still be problematic to depend on this oil. This oil is in itself too light to refine, so it must first be blended with extra heavy oil from Canada's tar sands.

This is problematic, since the oil production from tar sand is very expensive (and extremely polluting as well).

All I'm saying is, you can't look at the viability of shale oil in isolation, since it is the combination of shale oil + tar sand oil that gets sent to the refinery.

Good post.

Jhikpghf
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 09:25 PM

 



Post: #41
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Coal has a very good EROEI ratio, but fracking has a very low ratio, it's going below 5 now.

http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s...56-gr2.jpg
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 09:27 PM

 



Post: #42
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Because fracking requires a lot of energy input and the quality of the oil is less, so they have to refine it a lot or blend it with other grades.

It takes a lot of pressure (energy) to force the oil out of pores in bedrock, and then lift it with pumps.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 374578
06-18-2017 11:00 PM

 



Post: #43
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
O.G. (Original Ghost)  Wrote: (06-18-2017 06:33 AM)
I am an anthropogenic climate change skeptic, and I have my questions about peak oil, but even setting those aside, there are some reasons we might want to reduce our use (in the US) of certain fossil fuels.


Coal -- the sulfur problem (still not solved technologically)

Oil -- we still don't produce enough to satisfy ALL of our domestic demand and so still have to import some oil.


Notice I said reduce and not cut out.

I think we need to reduce oil use -- coal may present unsolvable technological problems to solve in terms of environmental effects.


I think we should do much more with natural gas and biomass, for what it's worth.


For sure, I am against carbon caps, taxes and exchanges -- international and internal. However, there are other reasons we may want to reduce fossil fuel use -- where practical (economically feasible).


And, of course, if there is any truth to peak oil we may have to.



Queue the fossil fundamentalists in 1...2...3...


THIS STUFF DOES NOT MATTER. EVERYBODY ABOVE GROUND WILL DIE IN THREE YEARS.
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LoP Guest
lop guest
User ID: 397519
06-18-2017 11:04 PM

 



Post: #44
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
LoP Guest  Wrote: (06-18-2017 11:00 PM)
O.G. (Original Ghost)  Wrote: (06-18-2017 06:33 AM)
I am an anthropogenic climate change skeptic, and I have my questions about peak oil, but even setting those aside, there are some reasons we might want to reduce our use (in the US) of certain fossil fuels.


Coal -- the sulfur problem (still not solved technologically)

Oil -- we still don't produce enough to satisfy ALL of our domestic demand and so still have to import some oil.


Notice I said reduce and not cut out.

I think we need to reduce oil use -- coal may present unsolvable technological problems to solve in terms of environmental effects.


I think we should do much more with natural gas and biomass, for what it's worth.


For sure, I am against carbon caps, taxes and exchanges -- international and internal. However, there are other reasons we may want to reduce fossil fuel use -- where practical (economically feasible).


And, of course, if there is any truth to peak oil we may have to.



Queue the fossil fundamentalists in 1...2...3...


THIS STUFF DOES NOT MATTER. EVERYBODY ABOVE GROUND WILL DIE IN THREE YEARS.

From what? Mass insanity?

That's a theory I would believe.

Lmao
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Natura Naturans
Registered User
User ID: 415819
06-19-2017 12:46 AM

Posts: 10,258



Post: #45
RE: Daily Telegraph: There is No Such Thing as Affordable Renewable Energy
Alpha Omega  Wrote: (06-18-2017 09:05 PM)
Natura Naturans  Wrote: (06-18-2017 07:13 PM)
Peak oil would cause the price to skyrocket. Instead the price is HALF what it was just a couple of year ago. Massive amounts of cheap oil are being produced in fracking in the US alone.

It's hard to prophecy, but it does seem like peak US oil production may have already been reached and it's downhill from here:

[Image: revolt.jpg]

What we do know, is that the profitability of the oil industry is declining, which is not a good sign:

[Image: Top-Three-US-Oil-Companies-Net-Income.png]

It's possible we've seen the peak for US oil already, even though official projections for the future point ever upwards. Future projections must always look good, or investors run away! Hard to say how much truth there is in a chart like this:

[Image: 7789396-3x2-700x467.jpg]

Even if the US manages to keep up the "tight oil" production in the future, it could still be problematic to depend on this oil. This oil is in itself too light to refine, so it must first be blended with extra heavy oil from Canada's tar sands.

This is problematic, since the oil production from tar sand is very expensive (and extremely polluting as well).

All I'm saying is, you can't look at the viability of shale oil in isolation, since it is the combination of shale oil + tar sand oil that gets sent to the refinery.

World Oil Production:

[Image: oil_world_nov_15-1024x776.png]

Does that look like a peak? Now that the UK is fracking and just about ever other country oil will flow like water.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/11/...production

“The highest activity a human being can attain is learning for understanding, because to understand is to be free.” --Baruch Spinoza
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